Malaria Eradicated from FMDB (Fear Monger Data Base)
October 4, 2011 Leave a comment
Malaria is often used by alarmists as a scare weapon. Their claim is malaria will increase with global warming, and we should all be alarmed, very alarmed. Everyone, who wants to, can now sip their tonic water for pleasure only.
Here’s the background:
In February 2002, Simon Hay, et al reported in the journal Nature (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3164800/ ) “The absence of long- and short-term change in the climate variables and the duration of [malaria transmission] suitability at these highland sites are not consistent with the simplistic notion that recent malaria resurgences in these areas are caused by rising temperatures.”
Warming = Increased Malaria = Simplistic Notion
What’s not to get?
A couple of months later, a “comment” by global warming/tropical disease advocate Jonathan Patz and colleagues was published in Nature. Patz disagreed with Hay, et al. The media picked up on the comment, and Reuters reported, “Climate change could be causing more than higher temperatures—it may also be helping to fuel a rise in Malaria in East Africa…Earlier research had suggested the upsurge was due to drug resistance and population growth, and not global warming. But scientists in the United States and Britain say it may not be just a coincidence that the rise in malaria parallels East African warming trends.”
Hay et al responded, “Evidence against the epidemiological significance of climate change in the recent malaria resurgences in Africa is mounting and remains unmatched by any contrary evidence.”
Not surprisingly, this wasn’t picked up and widely distributed by the media…
Now, nearly 10 years later, Hay et al, have published their latest findings in the journal PLosOne (http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0024524 )
I encourage my readers to take the time to read the study. If you don’t have the time, consider the following written by Hay on Saturday, September 17, 2011, which kind of nicely sums up his findings and feelings.
Malaria Cases in Kericho, Kenya
In my IPCC AR5 chapter writing group we have been told to think of “iconic figures” we could use in the chapter. In our paper on malaria and climate change in East Africa, I think this is the iconic figure:
It just shows monthly malaria cases at the tea estate hospital in Kericho, Kenya. The increase in malaria in the 90s was linked by some researchers to climate change. But in this decade, malaria cases have collapsed at this location. In the meantime we find that there does seem to be a significant increase in temperature especially when the most recent years are included in the analysis. The figure is simple and really easy to understand.
Snap – simple and really easy to understand. Warming without malaria…who’d have thunk it? Oh yeah…Hay et al in 2002….
Don’t stay up late waiting for the MSM or AGWers to report this. They’ll likely be waiting for Patz’s response.