Crystal Balling CV

Crystal 2

I heard a saying once – “If you’re going to predict, predict often.”

Truer words were never spoken as evidenced over this past week with epidemiologist Neil Ferguson going from projecting 500,000 deaths in the UK, to 20,000, to something around 5,000.

I love math, so, I’m doing a little predicting myself, and will see if I have a better track record.

I approached my projections by subtracting 88% of Italy and Spain’s death rates (due to their admitted over-reporting) and 1/3 of the UK’s rates for similar reasons, from the total world death rates as reported on March 18th.

I then took the average increase of deaths worldwide over the following 10 days = 1.109397 increase daily.

Starting on March 28th, I have done the projections below (Note – I will be updating from time to time…it appears the numbers fluctuate somewhat, going up or down during a particular day. I am using the “Yesterday” figures from Worldometers.info as final):

Date Projected Deaths Actual Deaths Multiplier
28 30,861 Increase Rate
29 34,237 34,065 1.1093
30 37,983 37,774 1.1093
31 42,138 42,309 1.1093
1 46,747 47,198 1.1093
2 51,861 53,167 1.1093
3 57,535 58,809 1.1093
4 63,829 64,688 1.1093
5 70,812 69,425 1.1093
6 78,558 74,654 1.1093
7 87,153 82,034 1.1093
8 96,687 88,460 1.1093
9 107,264 95,692 1.1093
10 118,998 102,687 1.1093
11 132,016 108,780 1.1093
12 146,459 114,197 1.1093
13 162,481 119,618 1.1093
14 180,256 126,601 1.1093
15 199,975 134,560 1.1093
16 221,852 1.1093
17 246,122 1.1093
18 273,047 1.1093
19 302,917 1.1093
20 336,055 1.1093
21 372,819 1.1093
22 413,604 1.1093
23 458,851 1.1093
24 509,048 1.1093
25 564,736 1.1093
26 626,517 1.1093
27 695,056 1.1093
28 771,093 1.1093
29 855,448 1.1093
30 949,031 1.1093
1 1,052,853 1.1093
2 1,168,031 1.1093
3 1,295,811 1.1093
4 1,437,568 1.1093
5 1,594,834 1.1093
6 1,769,304 1.1093
7 1,962,861 1.1093
8 2,177,592 1.1093
9 2,415,814 1.1093
10 2,680,097 1.1093

 

I have absolutely no idea how this prediction will stand up, but, I’ll update it as we go along.

There will be a turning point and it will be interesting to see how it will turn out.

Data from: www.worldometers.info

Post Script – April 2nd….had a thought…if the 1.1093 is at all accurate, and numbers don’t move up dramatically, are we just witnessing the natural course of end of life being played out and reported?

Take a look at this from April 1st….only 14 did not have underlying conditions.

NY April 1

April 2nd Report  18 – 1397

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