Lions and Tides and Bears, Oh My!!

We are being told by our well meaning local environmentalists that Ganges will be flooded in 2100 and that we must march and take action (coincidentally a couple of weeks before the local government elections.)

As a result, I decided to do a little research on real data from Vancouver’s tide gauge.

Here is what I found – a projected 1.41 inch rise over the next 78 years (Note – I have added the horizontal and parallel diagonal lines to the graph):

(Source – https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/175.php )

A not so scary 46 mm (1.81″) rise over the last 102 years of hard data.

What I found most interesting was the rather erratic behaviour of “sea level” since it seemed anything but level.

I learned the spike in 1983 was due to the massive 1982-1983 El Nino that year. https://www.whoi.edu/science/B/people/kamaral/1982-1983ElNino.html

Looking into the history of El Nino, that year was not anything spectacular in terms of magnitude. https://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/923849

However, the amplitude of El Nino has been increasing for over 1,000 years…all by itself….without any help from mankind it seems.

All of which begs the question – What do we really know about the future, other than what we can project from the past?

In my opinion (which obviously differs from the doom and gloomers) the brouhaha over potential sea level rise, is just one more example of failed, GIGO, computer modeling, which is becoming all too apparent these days.

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